We used the point spreads compiled on for this exercise and assumed every game was -110, meaning you have to risk $110 in order to win $100. In order to determine the accuracy of the predicted margin of victory, Hawgs247 compared the BPI to the most dependable source of sports predictions in the history of mankind: Las Vegas. Here’s a complete breakdown of how SEC teams did with different win probabilities: Win probability Record Winning percentage Overall, the BPI correctly picked the winner in 88 of 126 games. On the opposite end of the spectrum, teams with a relatively low win probability (between 50 and 59.9 percent) were 6-13. 21, when Florida was given a 92.5 percent chance to win, but lost to Vanderbilt 68-66. Not surprisingly, teams given a win probability of at least 90 percent went 19-1 this season. That could change in the coming years, but as it stands, the committee largely relies on RPI, a mathematical formula based on win-loss records.)īecause checking every Division I basketball result would be extremely difficult and tedious, we examined only conference games involving SEC schools. (It’s worth noting that the NCAA Tournament selection committee does not use the BPI or other advanced metrics, such as KenPom and Sagarin ratings. ![]() You may find yourself wondering how accurate these predictions are, so Hawgs247 decided to do some digging and answer that very question. ![]() ![]() For every game, the BPI spits out a win probability and predicted margin of victory. The BPI generates a 1-351 team ranking and is also used to predict outcomes. One of the favorites used by ESPN is its own metric: the Basketball Power Index, or BPI. (What's happening with the Arkansas Razorbacks? Make sure you're in the loop - take five seconds to Sign up for our FREE Razorbacks newsletter now !)Įvery March, college basketball fans across the country are bombarded by all sorts of statistics and analytics.
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